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Desynthesis - The Numbers
https://na.nasomi.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=18248		 Page 1 of 4
Author:  Demonknightx [ Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Desynthesis - The Numbers
Greetings everyone!

So, I know there are other threads discussing theoretical changes and nerfs to desynth. Most ended with "but I had decent luck!" or "yeah, I had bad luck" - so I decided to put together a large sample size to provide a bit more proof as to the extent of these... adjustments. I wish I had a spreadsheet of where the numbers were at before but all I have is anecdotal evidence there. One of my LS mates once upon a time, sold me 60 stacks of backplates because I told everyone I'd buy them at no limits. From what I remember there, I had a roughly 6% darksteel conversion rate and about a 30% iron rate at T2. But I only looked at how much product I had at the end of that long weekend without taking breaks into account. And again, purely anecdotal on what I'm comparing it to now.

At any rate, here's what a got post-nerf. (Moon phase and days can be provided if there's interest, but all synths faced South for those that care)

Stats: Smithing 93 + 5 - 51 cap recipe, Tier 2

433 Backplates -- after failed synths that I didn't lose one, it came out to 508 total synths

Crit Failures (loss of backplate) - 186 - 37.1%

Failure (crystal break only) - 75 - 15.0%

NQ (bronze ingot) - 130 - 25.8%

HQ (iron ingot) - 104 - 20.7%

HQ3 (darksteel ingot) - 13 - 2.6%

So, taking rounding into play, the total percentage for broken synths I got was 51.9%

For me, this isn't worth the time for almost literally a coin flip. 508 synths takes, well, a while to do. I could run more numbers here, but it's largely break even to purchase the mats and make everything. Ultimately, why bother. Again, am I salty? Of course I am. I think this is way overtuned. Feel free to discuss, bring retail numbers into the mix, say its not fair for crafters to desynth for a profit, I'm just providing the numbers and saying, for me, its better to make gil elsewhere and buy the raw materials. I feel like providing a way to provide raw materials that -isn't- mining is a good thing for the economy and other people leveling crafts. Considering 1219 stacks of iron ore have sold in the last 15 days... we'll see how this hits things on the AH in the long term if only a handful of people can buy all the iron ore. But I can say with 100% certainty that desynth mats listed on the AH are not worth the gil at the moment.

TL;DR - desynth isn't worth the time unless cost of mats decrease by 30-50% (imo) and/or you supply own crystals and mats

Anyways cheers all.

Special thanks to my LS for listening to me whine while I did those 500 synths -- I promise I'll complain less now that I've vented on here about it. Attached is my worst streak during my experiment. I kept taking screenshots thinking that would be the last in the streak...nope)

Attachments:
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Author:  Trist [ Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Seems this is what retail era was.

Market should re-correct itself in time I guess.
Author:  Kazen [ Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Trist wrote:
Seems this is what retail era was.

Market should re-correct itself in time I guess.
Author:  Demonknightx [ Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Kazen wrote:
Trist wrote:
Seems this is what retail era was.

Market should re-correct itself in time I guess.



Lol. Thanks for the input guys. Would be curious what T3 numbers are.
Author:  Andrina [ Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Was morbidly curious so I did some synths to see. Alchemy desynths weren't really great to begin with even before the nerf, so I only had data on ~120. Here is the data I had for goblin masks @T3 before nerf :

105 goblin masks-- 122 total synths
Crit Failures: - 17- 13.9%
Failure - 17 - 13.9%
NQ: 32 - 26.2%
HQ1: 32 - 26.2%
HQ2: 14 - 11.4%
HQ3: 10 - 8.2%
total broken synths 27.8%

after nerf
108 goblin masks-- 122 total synths
Crit Failures: - 51- 41.8%
Failure - 14 - 11.4%
NQ: 22 - 18.0%
HQ1: 19 - 15.6%
HQ2: 12 - 9.8%
HQ3: 4 - 3.2%
total broken synths 53.3%

My take aways:
Failure rate has more than doubled, from 1 in 4 to more than 1 in 2.
Critical fail rate has increased significantly; whereas it was about 1 in 2 odds for critical failure, it's now closer to 4 in 5 odds of critical failure.
Ratio of NQ:HQ1:HQ2:HQ3 seems relatively stable. I did got much fewer Hq3 post nerf, but that could also just be bad luck and having only down 120 synths before/after. Naturally due to much, much higher failure rates in general, HQ rates as a % of total craft are lower.

I'm curious, people suggest this is now retail accurate. Did the moghancement: desynthesis make a huge impact on success rates? Not sure why anyone would bother with it back then if this is accurate.
Author:  Julia [ Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Andrina wrote:
Did the moghancement: desynthesis make a huge impact on success rates? Not sure why anyone would bother with it back then if this is accurate.

Very small. ~1-2%. Desynth was a lossy and spammy practice, without much inflation. This was part of how SE kept crafting from causing inflation. The other part was fishing fatigue...
Author:  Andrina [ Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Julia wrote:
Andrina wrote:
Did the moghancement: desynthesis make a huge impact on success rates? Not sure why anyone would bother with it back then if this is accurate.

Very small. ~1-2%. Desynth was a lossy and spammy practice, without much inflation. This was part of how SE kept crafting from causing inflation. The other part was fishing fatigue...


That's unfortunate. I remember in retail making a decent starting by farming and selling goblin items + quadav backplates to sell to crafters, it was a good way for all new players to make gil. Hopefully the markets will correct and there will still be a market for them for newer players here as well, but goblin masks for certain should just be thrown away at this point.
Author:  Julia [ Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Andrina wrote:
Hopefully the markets will correct and there will still be a market for them for newer players here as well, but goblin masks for certain should just be thrown away at this point.
It will, but craft-vendoring gets a funeral for how long it ran. Goblin masks were cheaper than crystals on retail.
Author:  Demonknightx [ Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Andrina wrote:
Julia wrote:
Andrina wrote:
Did the moghancement: desynthesis make a huge impact on success rates? Not sure why anyone would bother with it back then if this is accurate.

Very small. ~1-2%. Desynth was a lossy and spammy practice, without much inflation. This was part of how SE kept crafting from causing inflation. The other part was fishing fatigue...


That's unfortunate. I remember in retail making a decent starting by farming and selling goblin items + quadav backplates to sell to crafters, it was a good way for all new players to make gil. Hopefully the markets will correct and there will still be a market for them for newer players here as well, but goblin masks for certain should just be thrown away at this point.


Yeah, idk if anyone will farm backplates for less than 5k a stack. That's (or less) is what i would be willing to spend on it. I still think adjusting NPC prices would have been a better approach. Now everyone's just fighting over iron ores -- which is still at over 1000 bought in 15 days.

Take half of the server's source of iron ingots away, and half of how to keep a smith busy, and you get a shortage. /shockedpikachu
Author:  Kazen [ Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Desynthesis - The Numbers
Demonknightx wrote:
Andrina wrote:
Julia wrote:
Very small. ~1-2%. Desynth was a lossy and spammy practice, without much inflation. This was part of how SE kept crafting from causing inflation. The other part was fishing fatigue...


That's unfortunate. I remember in retail making a decent starting by farming and selling goblin items + quadav backplates to sell to crafters, it was a good way for all new players to make gil. Hopefully the markets will correct and there will still be a market for them for newer players here as well, but goblin masks for certain should just be thrown away at this point.


Yeah, idk if anyone will farm backplates for less than 5k a stack. That's (or less) is what i would be willing to spend on it. I still think adjusting NPC prices would have been a better approach. Now everyone's just fighting over iron ores -- which is still at over 1000 bought in 15 days.

Take half of the server's source of iron ingots away, and half of how to keep a smith busy, and you get a shortage. /shockedpikachu


Markets will correct over time. Again, being upset that the server makes changes to be era-accurate is putting the cart before the horse.
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