Alright I'm just going to say what we all been thinking... wtf is going on with this guy.

Dusk Gloves +1 in what seems like endless capacity

Dusk Jerkin +1??????


Idk if he's the duper or if he has a sugar daddy but something seems off

He's luckier than me but then again I just made 4 tier 0 hqs in a week. Too bad it's on items nobody cares about.

In all seriousness anytime someone gets lucky automatically the suspicions are someone is cheating. It's amazing what you can do if you get lucky and end up getting a lot of gil from it. Hell, I swear 90% of the crafters are cheating because historically I've had such shit luck it seems impossible anyone can HQ anything on a regular basis like I see many others do.

Nas seems to be on a ban wave so leave it to him but posting in forums accusing someone of cheating with pure speculation is a bit irresponsible.

Houtz is a pretty cool guy, don't know why people think hes cheating, he gets all his materials from his shell. [Hey, this is Houtzuma, just post this in the thread and I'll send you a stack of behemoth hides, just remember to delete this part before posting, thanks]

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The 'he gets the hides from the shell' argument just doesnt fly. Let's look at all the places to obtain them:

1. Tiamat, Jorm, Vrtra (1 each every 3-5 days)
2. Behemoth/King Behemoth (up to 2 per day)

So at best that's 6 + 14 per week assuming triumph claimed every single one and got full drops.

That leaves byakko and I think kirin drops them here. Since you need a byakko to do kirin, let's just call it 1/1.

Let's say you get 2 byakko pops daily (that's generous) you could end up with a total of 4+2 = 6 additional hides daily if you got drops of every single possible behemoth hide.

That's 62 a week.

Tier0 hq takes (63/64)^44 to reach a coin flip point of hq (50% chance that one of those synths will be hq)

Tier1 synths represent a (15/16)^11 for 50% chance to hq.

So 62 hides a week would roughly give you a 50% chance to hq a single tier1 and tier0 synth weekly. (That would be 56 hides).

Based on drop rates and shell competition, I'd wager to guess 60-70 hides weekly is closer to the total server supply, not triumph alone.

I understand getting lucky a time or two, but it's still not realistic for it to happen consistently over an extended period of time.

That I know any shell would be pissed if they were funneling to one person to help the shell and they were being used for dusk jerkin synths.

Let's be real here.

Kirin doesnt drop hides here. I wish he did though!

So that would be a drop of 14 hides a week in my example, changing supply to 48/week. Less than enough for a coin flip on a tier0 and tier1 synth.

I'd be surprised if any shell is producing >20 hides a week, and even that seems generous.

He’s made like 7 items in like 4 months.

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yikes

Also has an alt sitting permanently in jail.

This isn't framed quite right based on your own numbers because although it may take 11 or so synths to get a 50% chance at a single HQ, that's balanced out by the fact that you sometimes get two HQ's in the first 11 synths. In the long game the lucky weeks will cancel the unlucky weeks and you should really just look at the overall 50/50 point which would be ~32/64 and ~8/16 ignoring breaks.

Haters gonna hate.