Metzger wrote:
This is the session following the previous 130 crafts.
2 level skill gap between myself(86) and synth(88). Not a single 0.1. Skill-ups are fine though.
When asking for concrete data, this is as statistically definitive as it could ever be. I don't know what the expectation value is for skill-up probability, but for some representative examples:
*If skill-up probability = 10%, the probability of getting 0 skill-ups in 130 attempts is about 1 in almost 900,000. For context, imagine doing /random 130 times and NEVER exceeding 900 in all 130 attempts.
*If skill-up probability = 2%, the probability of getting 0 skill-ups in 130 attempts is about 1 in about 14. Although most people could imagine never exceeding 980 in 130 /random attempts, the odds are still quite poor when considering Metzger's reality.
For the sake of argument, my anecdotal experience is that skill-up rates were once higher than 10%. But I'd accept 10% as quite a conservative estimate. Regardless of the skill-up rate now on Nasomi, Metzger obviously did experience bad luck. But either the skill-up rates are abysmal or Metzger accidentally had advanced support on for 130 synths.